Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures August month candlestick is a foul H1 purchase sign bar at EMA – exponential transferring common. It’s a large doji bar with basically no physique and an extended tail beneath.
The week is a bear doji bar with a tail beneath. It pulled again beneath final week and is reversing from the weekly EMA.
July and August are actually large bars. They’re nearly double in dimension in comparison with bars earlier within the 12 months.
The quarterly bar is a extremely large outdoors doji bar as a result of it’s vary is from the July excessive to the August low, and the market is at present across the midpoint. Given the scale of the quarterly bar, it’s seemingly that the September month will keep throughout the vary of the present quarter, or at the least not breakout past it.
This outdoors bar is uncommon in that it represents a leg down from the excessive of the quarter to only beneath the prior quarter and is at present on a leg up. Exterior bars want follow-through bars to proceed, and nonetheless normally reverse inside two bars.
Assuming this quarter ends within the higher half of the bar, what occurs subsequent quarter?
If October month is a bear reversal bar close to the highest of the present quarterly bar, it might signify a reversal. If as a substitute October is a bull bar, then we wait to see if November is a bear bar. Earlier reviews have talked about how this 12 months will seemingly not be entry bar on the yearly chart which might imply at the least a tail on the highest given this 12 months is already a bull bar. Given this, it’s extra seemingly at the least two of the three months subsequent quarter are a doji bar or a bear bar.
As a substitute if this quarter ends within the backside half of the bar, then bulls will attempt for a reversal bar across the backside of the present quarterly outdoors bar.
The opposite option to describe the above is an increasing triangle (ET), the place the market goes above the July excessive and reverses and goes beneath the August low and reverses until there’s a breakout.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Month-to-month NASDAQ chart
- The August month bar is a doji bar with large tail beneath.
- At one level within the month, the bar was a giant bear bar. It nearly touched the month-to-month EMA and reversed.
- The tails on the July and August months represents buying and selling vary – There are seemingly sellers above and consumers beneath.
- The physique hole with the 2021 excessive shut remains to be open. The market went beneath it and reversed.
- If the market is transitioning to a buying and selling vary, then that physique hole ought to shut.
- So, what’s potential within the subsequent few months – The market might go up for a few bars however will seemingly discover sellers. Given final month was a foul promote sign bar, it’s potential the market will go as much as at the least the highest half of the higher tail.
- Or the market might go down for a month or two, shut the physique hole, kind a greater purchase sign on the month-to-month EMA and discover consumers.
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bear doji bar with a tail reversing from the weekly EMA.
- It’s a pullback within the bull leg up of the final three weeks, and a purchase sign bar for the subsequent leg up. Provided that this week is a bear bar, it’s not purchase sign bar.
- As talked about final week, the month-to-month bar had already been so large that it was unlikely for this week to be one other bull pattern bar. It was extra prone to be a doji bar or bear bar. This week met that expectation.
- A bear that bought the shut of the bull reversal bar of 8/5 and bought the shut of the small bull bar final week was capable of exit breakeven on the weekly EMA this week.
- Bears will intention for double-top across the July excessive shut.
- Bulls need to get a few robust bull closes above the July excessive shut, to allow them to sign {that a} new bull leg is beginning.
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